Holding on to Gujarat is more important for BJP than even winning UP
There are nearly 400 million Muslims and Dalits in India. According to the 2011 census, Muslims comprise 14.2 per cent of the population, Dalits 16.6 per cent. Every third Indian is therefore Muslim or Dalit. For politicians a Dalit-Muslim combination forms an electoral juggernaut. In Uttar Pradesh, which has 20.5 per cent of India's total Dalit population (over 40 million out of the country's 210 million Dalits) and another 40 million Muslims, the combination could prove decisive. Mayawati has regained lost momentum after a series of atrocities on Dalits in recent weeks and the crude personal remark by BJP Uttar Pradesh vice-president Dayashankar Singh, expelled last week from the party and arrested on July 29. The Samajwadi Party's misgovernance could also nudge a part of its Muslim base to vote strategically for the BSP in order to keep the BJP at bay. With eight months to go for the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, much can change on the ground. Polarisatio...